Economic experts have said that the International Monetary Fund’s revised growth forecast of Nigeria’s 2022 economy is not substantial.
In a new report, the July edition of its World Economic Outlook, IMF revised upward its growth forecast for the Nigerian economy in 2022 by 0.3 per cent from 2.3 per cent to 2.6 per cent compared to its earlier projection in April but retained its growth forecast for 2021 at 2.5 per cent.
The report stated, “In low income developing countries, the overall fiscal deficit in 2021 was revised up by 0.3 percentage points from the April 2021 WEO, mainly because of the re-emergence of fuel subsidies as well as the additional COVID-19 and security related support in Nigeria.”
A professor of economics and public policy at the University of Uyo and the Chairman of the Foundation for Economic Research and Training, Prof. Akpan Ekpo, in a telephone interview, said, that the Nigerian economy would still undergo a fragile, sluggish recovery, adding that with the rate of insecurity and other socio-economic issues, it would be challenging to achieve the projected growth rate.
He said, “The Nigerian economy is experiencing a fragile, sluggish recovery. The IMF’s forecast, which they keep changing every time, is okay but if we don’t address the security situation in the country, that growth rate will not be realised because investors are worried about the country’s security.
“So, the growth forecast is very tentative. The projected growth still shows that the country will continue to experience a sluggish, fragile recovery, and still be in a state of stagflation because inflation will likely still be the same next year, growth is not that high; unemployment is still very high, especially among youths.”
He added, “The 0.3 percentage increase is very marginal. It is not a big deal.”
A professor of economics at the Olabisi Onabanjo University, Ogun State, Sheriffdeen Tella, said that although the increase was a good sign, the country still had a lot of work to do to reach the forecast.
“It is a good sign but I hope we will be able to meet up because the macroeconomic fundamentals are not so good. But in the present circumstances we cannot, especially due to the rate of insecurity in the country,” he said.
He agreed with Prof Ekpo that the 0.3 per cent increase was marginal.
“The 0.3 increase is not substantial because the GDP is still low,” he added.
