Relying on global trends, Swedish multinational networking and telecommunications company, Ericsson has forecasted that global 5G subscriptions would reach 4.4 billion in 2027.
Ericsson in its Mobility Report also revealed a 300-fold increase in mobile data traffic in the last 10 years, since 2011, the year in which Ericsson Mobility Report was first published.
The report findings, which are based on current and historical network data, are included in the special ten-year edition of the Ericsson Mobility Report November 2021. The report looks back at some of the key trends and events that have shaped the last decade, as well as reveals the latest forecasts toward 2027.
According to the report, the premise that 5G will become the fastest deployed mobile generation to date has been enhanced with an updated estimate of close to 660 million 5G subscriptions by the end of this year.
“The increase is due to stronger than expected demand in China and North America, driven in part by decreasing prices of 5G devices, the report further said, adding that there is also a net addition of 98 million 5G subscriptions globally in Q3 2021, compared to 48 million new 4G subscriptions. At the end of 2021, it is estimated that 5G networks will cover more than two billion people, the report further predicted, Ericsson stated.
According to the latest forecasts, 5G is on track to become the dominant mobile access technology, based on subscriptions globally, by 2027, “5G is also expected to account for around 50 per cent of all mobile subscriptions worldwide, covering 75 per cent of the world’s population and carrying 62 per cent of the global smartphone traffic by 2027.”
Analysing the report, the Executive Vice President and Head of Networks at Ericsson, Fredrik Jejdling, said: “Mobile communication has had an incredible impact on society and business over the last ten years. When we look ahead to 2027, mobile networks will be more integral than ever to how we interact, live and work. Our latest Ericsson Mobility Report shows that the pace of change is accelerating, with technology playing a crucial role.”
The report explained that since 2011, the deployment of 4G LTE networks had been pivotal in generating 5.5 billion new smartphone connections worldwide, contributing to the market availability of more than 20,000 different 4G device models.
The report indicates a much earlier technology lifecycle of 5G devices, with 5G handsets today accounting for 23 per cent of global volumes, compared to 8 per cent of 4G handsets at the corresponding point in its lifecycle.
This, the report further said, would help to fuel an exponential growth of mobile data traffic.
According to the report, mobile network data traffic was up 42 per cent, year-on-year, in Q3 2021 accounting for approximately 78 exabytes (EB), “including traffic generated by Fixed Wireless Access (FWA) services. In Q3 alone, mobile data traffic was more than all mobile traffic ever generated up until the end of 2016. New forecasts reveal that total mobile network data traffic is likely to reach 370EB by the end of 2027.”
The report also revealed that the nature of mobile connections was changing rapidly, contributing to the ongoing rise in mobile data traffic.
It added, “Broadband Internet of Things (IoT) has now surpassed 2G/3G as the segment that connects the largest share of IoT applications. It is expected to account for 47 per cent of all cellular IoT connections by the end of 2021, compared to 37 per cent for 2G/3G and 16 per cent for Massive IoT technologies.”
The report said new forecasts have reaffirmed the rapid acceleration of massive IoT deployments in coming years, “spanning use cases such as e-health wearables, logistical asset tracking, environmental monitoring and smart metres, and smart manufacturing tracking and monitoring devices. Massive IoT deployments are forecast to account for 51 per cent of all cellular IoT connections by 2027. In the same forecast period, FWA connections are forecast to grow almost threefold, from 88 million by the end of 2021, to around 230 million in 2027. Almost half of these connections are expected to be carried over 5G networks.”
