In 2022, the major themes that will dominate Nigeria’s economic landscape will be politics, the management of the fiscal deficit, the foreign exchange policy of the Central Bank and changes in prices and economic growth (or the lack of it). Of all these factors, politics will dominate the landscape due to the general elections in 2023. Nevertheless, the dominance of politics in 2022 will not diminish the importance of the other major economic themes. Nigeria’s failure to pursue macro-economic reforms over the last eight years has placed the country at a backfoot and in 2022 we expect that this reform inertia will persist even till the expiration of the current administration. This could effectively be the legacy of the current administration.
Other socio-political factors that will shape the economic landscape in 2022 also come in the form of headwinds. The crisis of insecurity characterised by kidnapping and armed banditry across flashpoints in the north and parts of the south will be the most dominant of these socio-political factors. Another social factor to watch out for will be the management of risks around COVID-19.