Nigeria’s total crude oil export revenues hit N73 trillion in the 21 months spanning January 2023 to September 2024, today’s analysis of data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) for the period has shown.
The period also saw a significant rise in exports of the commodity, which rose by about 200 percent from a meager value of just over N5 trillion in the first quarter of 2023 to over N15 trillion in the first quarter of 2024.
With the capacity to raise production to 2 million barrels per day by reopening inactive wells and blocking oil thieves from siphoning the country’s commonwealth, Nigeria has struggled to hit its output target since 2020.
However, despite the massive increase in revenues from crude oil exports, today’s checks indicated that rather than slowing down government borrowing, loans taken by the federal government have indeed soared in the months under consideration.
A review of the ‘Foreign Trade in Goods Statistics’ of the NBS for the seven quarters during the period January 2023 to September 2024 implied that in the first quarter of 2023, Nigeria exported a miserly N5.148 trillion worth of crude oil, which was even the largest export value for the period.
In addition, the value of crude oil exports in Q2, 2023, stood at N5.586 trillion, indicating an increase of 8.50 percent compared to the value recorded in Q1, 2023, although it declined by 5.44 percent when compared to the same period in 2022 (N5.907 trillion).
Also, in Q3, 2023, the value of total crude oil exported by Nigeria, according to historical NBS data, stood at N8.535 trillion, indicating an increase of 70.52 percent compared to the value recorded in Q2, 2023. It also increased by 83.23 percent when compared to the same period in 2022, which was N4.658 trillion.
In the same vein, earnings from crude oil exports continued to rise in Q4, 2023, standing at N10.310 trillion, indicating an increase of 20.80 percent compared to the value recorded in Q3, 2023, and increased by 109.91 percent when compared to the same period in 2022, which was N4.911 trillion.
Besides, export trade in the first quarter of 2024 was dominated by crude oil exports valued at N15.486 trillion, representing 80.80 percent of total exports, while the value of non-crude oil exports stood at N3.680 trillion, accounting for 19.20 percent of total exports.
In the second quarter of 2024, crude oil exports were valued at N14.559 trillion, representing 74.98 percent of total exports, while the value of non-crude oil exports stood at N4.859 trillion, accounting for 25.02 percent of total exports.
Finally, in Q3, 2024, Nigeria’s export trade continued to be dominated by crude oil exports, valued at N13.406 trillion and representing 65.44 percent of total exports, while the value of non-crude oil exports stood at N7.080 trillion, accounting for 34.56 percent of total exports, of which non-oil products contributed N2.501 trillion, or 12.21 percent of total exports.
But despite the massive increase in earnings from crude oil, data also showed that Nigeria’s public debt has been growing in the last two years, with the country’s debt stock increasing from N97.34 trillion in Q4, 2023, to N121.67 trillion in Q1, 2024. This was a 24.99 percent increase on a quarter-on-quarter basis.
But the federal government recently justified its continued borrowing, citing legislative approvals and budgetary requirements, even after revenue-generating agencies reported significant surpluses for the 2024 fiscal year.
Speaking during an interactive session between the government’s revenue agencies and the National Assembly Joint Committees on Finance, Budget, and National Planning, with a focus on the 2025-2027 Medium Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF) and Fiscal Strategy Paper (FSP), Senator Adamu Aliero sought to know why the government still collects foreign loans despite exceeding revenue targets.
But the Federal Inland Revenue Service (FIRS) Chairman, Zacch Adedeji, explained that borrowing remains part of the appropriation law passed by the National Assembly.
“Borrowing is part of what has been approved by the National Assembly for the federal government. Surpassing revenue targets does not negate the borrowing component of the law,” he said.
Also, Minister of Budget and Economic Planning, Senator Atiku Bagudu, stressed that the N9.7 trillion deficit in the N35.5 trillion 2024 budget necessitated borrowing to fund critical areas.
In his defense of government borrowing, the Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Mr. Wale Edun, insisted that there was a need for borrowing to address funding gaps, especially for initiatives targeting the poorest and most vulnerable.
