Nigeria’s crude oil production grew by 8.13 per cent in the first quarter of 2025, despite the sharp fall in output in March this year, a THISDAY analysis of data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) has shown.
The data indicated that compared with crude production in the first quarter of 2024, the combination of oil and condensate volume drilled in January, February, and March this year was 5,013,209 barrels, as against 4,621,409 in the same period last year.
This was despite a five-month slump in oil and condensate production in March this year, apparently caused by the political problems in Rivers state, a major hub of Nigeria’s oil and gas production. The issue, which spilled to Bayelsa, led to the temporary shutdown of some pipelines in both states after they were attacked.
Nigeria produced 391,800 more barrels of crude oil in Q1, 2025, compared to the same period in 2024, the NUPRC data indicated, a sign of an improvement in the overall security situation in the Niger Delta, better evacuation arrangements and yields from the reopening of oil wells hitherto shut down, before the latest episode of attacks.
Although the authorities did not clearly state the reason for the fall in Nigeria’s crude oil production in March 2025, attacks on pipelines in Rivers and Bayelsa states may have disrupted flow and caused operational shutdowns.
For example, Oando Plc reported multiple incidents affecting major crude and gas pipelines. There was also an explosion on the Trans-Niger Pipeline in Rivers State, which threatened hundreds of thousands of barrels per day. While operations were rerouted, the disruption still impacted overall output.
There was also maintenance on pipelines and a fire at an oil evacuation point in February, which had lingering effects that carried into March. These are aside from the general problems such as oil theft and underinvestment, which continue to weigh heavily on the sector, discouraging new investment and hindering consistent production.
But the federal government responded to the escalating vandalism and insecurity by declaring a state of emergency in Rivers State. The political instability added to the challenges facing oil production during the month.
However, a breakdown of oil and condensate production for the first three months of 2024 showed that while output was: 1,643,671; 1,539, 609 and 1,438,129, totalling 4,621,409, in the same period of 2025, it was 1,737, 480; 1,671, 953 and 1,603, 776 respectively, to hit 5,013,209 in Q1 this year and an 8 per cent growth compared to the same period last year.
There are already concerns, even in government circles, that if the trend of a significant fall in oil production, coupled with the slumping international crude prices, continues, it could pose a significant challenge to the nation’s economy.
Minister of Power, Chief Adebayo Adelabu, a player in the financial sector before his appointment as minister, last week emphasised that “the evolving economic landscape” posed a major challenge to the country.
“Just let’s look at the recent disruptions of the reciprocal tariffs from the US and a lot of other things that are coming. And look at the impact on the crude oil international price from $80 down to $64, and still going down further.
“That’s a lot of risk on our revenues in Africa, especially in Nigeria, where we rely so much on crude oil for foreign exchange. Over 90 per cent of our foreign revenue is from crude oil. Non-oil exports are still very low here. So you can see the disruptions are causing even our 2025 annual budgets.
“We used $75 per one barrel as the benchmark price for the budget. We used 2 million barrels per day. And we are still at 1.7 million. You can see that gap, that hole is going to lead to a deficit. The major impact is that a lot of our quite laudable infrastructure transformation projects will be affected,” he told a European Union delegation last week.
Last Wednesday, the situation got worse when Brent crude oil price dropped to $59.62 per barrel for the first time since February 2021, while US West Texas Intermediate fell by 5.54 per cent to $56.28 per barrel.
But the Minister of Finance, Wale Edun, has said that although the oil price plunge will harm Nigeria, to curtail any price effect, “we are intensifying efforts to ramp up crude oil production” as well as other sources of non-oil revenue.
Meanwhile, the NUPRC data showed that when condensate, which is outside the computation of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), is removed, Nigeria produced as low as 1.4 million barrels per day during the period under consideration.
In November last year, when oil output began to pick up, Nigeria produced 1.48 million bpd; 1.48 million bpd in December; 1.53 million bpd in January; 1.46 million bpd in February, before the latest figure of 1.4 million bpd recorded last month, reaching a five-month low.
