The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report released Monday by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed that Nigeria’s economic growth rate in 2019 out-performed the 2.1% projected by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Analysis showed that quarter on quarter, real GDP growth was 5.59%. The economy grew by 2.55% in the fourth quarter of 2019. Compared to the fourth quarter of 2018 which recorded a growth rate of 2.38%, the growth represented an increase of 0.17% points and an increase of 0.27% points when compared with the third quarter of 2019.
Daily Trust observes that the strong fourth quarter 2019 growth rate also represented the highest quarterly growth performance since the 2016 recession. In Q4 2019, aggregate GDP stood at N39.58 trillion in nominal terms, up from the the fourth quarter of 2018 which recorded an aggregate of N35.23 trillion, representing year on year nominal growth rate of 12.34%. This rate was –0.31% points lower relative to the rate recorded in the fourth quarter of 2018 and –0.96% points lower than the rate recorded in the preceding quarter.
The report showed that during the same period, average daily oil production of 2.00 million barrels per day (mbpd) was recorded, indicating a rise of 0.09mbpd over the daily average production of 1.91 mbpd recorded in the same quarter of 2018. However, it was –0.04mbpd lower than the production volume of 2.04mbpd recorded in the third quarter of 2019. Nevertheless, it is notable that oil production remained consistently at or above 2.0mbpd all through 2019. Real growth of the oil sector was 6.36% (year-on-year) in Q4 2019 indicating an increase of 7.98% points relative to the rate recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2018.
Analysis showed that growth decreased by –0.13% points when compared to third quarter of 2018 which was 6.49%. Quarter-on-Quarter, the oil sector recorded a growth rate of –20.87% in final quarter of 2019. On an annual basis, oil recorded 4.59% growth in 2019, higher compared to 0.97% recorded in 2018.
The Oil sector contributed 7.32% to total real GDP in fourth quarter of 2019, up from figures recorded in the corresponding period of 2018 but down compared to the preceding quarter, where it contributed 7.06% and 9.77% respectively. The report showed that oil contributed 8.78% to real GDP in 2019. Meanwhile, the non-oil sector grew by 2.26% in real terms during the fourth quarter of 2019, being lower by –0.44% points compared to the rate recorded in the same quarter of 2018 but 0.42% point higher than the third quarter of 2019.
NBS stated this sector was driven, during the fourth quarter of 2019, mainly by Information and Communication (Telecommunications), Agriculture (Crop Production), Financial and Insurance Services (Financial Institutions), and Manufacturing. In real terms, the non-oil sector contributed 92.68% to the nation’s GDP in the fourth quarter of 2019, lower from the 92.94%) percentage recorded in the fourth quarter of 2018 but higher than the 90.23% in the third quarter of 2019.
